There’s an interesting write-up about the adoption of 3DTV over at GLG, although the author seems to be anonymous.
The article looks at two issues standing in the way of mass adoption of 3DTV… standardisation (of 3DTV production, transmission, reception and display standards) and instilling the desire to upgrade into consumers. The author concludes that “the jury is still out” because, although progress is being made in standardisation, there’s no real evidence that consumers see a need to upgrade.
There are several points the author fails to address, though. Firstly, 3DTV’s aren’t expected to cost much more than regular televisions and are able to display 3D content or 2D content, so there doesn’t need to be a huge impetus to upgrade to a 3D TV set… you just buy one when you feel the need to trade up from your current TV. Secondly, the author doesn’t mention games. I think 3D games will be a big driver of adoption of 3DTV sets. Finally, the author dismisses the “Avatar effect”, which I believe is a mistake…
The current success of Avatar in the cinema is arguably no guide, given how different the big screen experience is to watching the same movie on a living-room display (even a large one). That said, it may push people to experiment.
After seeing the movie, I want to know how soon I can get a similar setup in my house, and I’m sure I’m not alone.